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February 23rd, 2021

2/23/2021

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Welcome to the second part of my two-part ante-post selections for the 2021 Cheltenham Festival.

Black Tears – Mares Hurdle (each-way)

With Benie Des Dieux ruled-out of the Cheltenham Festival and a number of the leading market principles prospectively redirected to other races (Honeysuckle – Champion Hurdle, Roksana – Stayers Hurdle, Dame De Compagnie and Elimay – Mares Chase and Verdana Blue and Great White Shark respective handicaps at the festival) the race-day card could have already formed.

Black Tears will take the route out of handicap company and take her place in the Mares Hurdle. Second in the Coral Cup, off a mark of 144, at last year's festival behind Dame De Compagnie (one of the biggest plot-jobs of the festival), she looked like she had every chance of winning the race before Barry Geraghty pulled further clear to win. The seven-year-old mare of Our Girl Salley took the same preparation, as last year, with victory in the rearranged Quevega Hurdle at Punchestown (beating The Getaway Star by five lengths) on 1st March. 


Concertista has to be considered one of the NAPs of the festival after she won the Mares' Novices' Hurdle by 12 lengths at last year's festival and twice previously has the beating of Black Tears in December at Leopardstown and in the 2019 Mares' Novices' Hurdle when Black Tears finished fourth.  Black Tears looks to be one of the each-way players in the race that looks likely on race day to have been decimated compared to the current entries and holds a quintessential factor, previous course and distance form.

Raynas World – Mares Hurdle (each-way)

One horse that has gone under the radar is Raynas World. Philip Kirby's six-year-old mare finished third behind Concertista in the Mares' Novices' Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival last year at 100/1 in a race where she never looked to be posing a serious challenge until the final stages of the race where she finished like a rocket. I would certainly recommend having a watch back of the race if you haven't already done so.


After a 219-days break, Raynas World reappeared at Catterick, where she was three and three-quarter lengths behind Bollin Neil at Catterick by three and three-quarter lengths. Regular rider Thomas Dowson was back on board when she returned to the Winners Enclosure at Hexham in October. Since that victory, she hasn't returned to the Winners Enclosure but produced two creditable efforts behind Stainsby Girl and Nada To Prada respectively in smaller fields, which isn't her forte. 

All of her wins have come on either soft or heavy ground. The prognostication, on the opening day of the festival, is due to be soft ground. It could well be worth considering Raynas World as an each-way alternative to the short-priced Concertista, who is looking even more likely to go off as odds-on favourite on the day. 

Put The Kettle On – Champion Chase (each-way)

Course and distance form at the Cheltenham Festival is quintessential. Put The Kettle On won the Arkle Chase at last year's festival with remarkable conviction with a one and a quarter victory over the well-fancied Fakir D'oudairies.

There had been inklings that trainer Henry De Bromhead's mare would bypass the Champion Chase and line-up in the newest race to grace the Cheltenham Festival, Mares Novices Chase, but now seems to be going down the Champion Chase route, although nothing has been confirmed. After a 250 days break, Put The Kettle On was victorious by one and a quarter lengths over 2019 Arkle winner Duc Des Genievres at the Cheltenham November meeting. 


Six-year-olds don't have the best record in the race, not winning since 2009 (Master Minded), but two key trends are in Put The Kettle The On's favour. 
16 of the last 18 winners of the Arkle Chase have gone to place in the Champion Chase the following season and the last 12 winners have raced in at least seven chase runs and won five times. Put The Kettle On has eight chases under her saddle winning six of them, with an impressive 75% strike rate.

The daughter of Name For Fame record at Cheltenham is yet to be
blemished in three races, including in the
 Arkle Chase at last year's festival and will receive the 7lbs Mares Allowance unlike many others in the race.

Without Chancun Pour Soi (astounding Willie Mullins has never won the Champion Chase), Put The Kettle On could easily outrun her current double-figure odds.

Melon – (Ryanair)

Is Melon one of the unluckiest horses to ever run at the Cheltenham Festival or a case of him not wanting to get his head in front at Cheltenham? Melon has finished second at the last four festivals to firstly the late Labaik in the 2017 Supreme Novices' Hurdle, dual Champion Hurdle heroine Buveur D'Air in 2018 and the late Espoir D'Allen in the running of the 2019 Champion Hurdle.

In last year's Marsh Novices' Chase, Melon looked to have won the race when he and Samcro hit the line together but was officially declared to have lost the race by a nose. If you were to watch back the respective races, Melon has been one of the most luckless horses to ever taken apart at the festival but still is one of the most dependable each-way bets of this year's meeting.

Melon was third behind Kemboy and the third favourite for the Gold Cup, A Plus Tard, in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown in December in another race where it looked Melon would be in Winners Enclosure before failing to see out the final furlong. On his latest run, the nine-year-old finished last of five behind Kemboy in the Irish Gold Cup in a disappointing performance, but the ground could have played a factor. Three key trends favour Melon in the race, eleven of the previous twelve winners of the Ryanair Chase have had two runs at Cheltenham, with all of the twelve winners with at least four runs over hurdles and Willie Mullins trained last year's winner. Melon has raced at Cheltenham four times and has had 14 runs over hurdles.
​

Captain Guinness – Arkle Chase (each-way)

Henry De Bromhead's six-year-old has ensured a burdensome campaign after being diagnosed with a heart problem after being pulled-up half-way through his seasonal reappearance at Tipperary.

After a 52 days break, the mare of Presenting D'Azy, won a 17 runner Beginners Chase at Punchestown at the end of December, beating Midnight Run and Alfa Mix, with no adverse effects of the race at Tipperary. Brought-down two out by
Elixir D'Ainay or Asterion Forlonge (who jumped aggressively to his right throughout his race), depending on how you analysed the race, Captain Guinness looked to be contention approaching the Cheltenham Hill. It wouldn't have come as a surprise if he had placed behind Shiskin and Abacadabras in last year's Supreme Novices' Hurdle.

Captain Guinness will attempt to reverse form with Shiskin and the front-running enigma Energumeme next month. He finished second to Energumeme at Naas in a four-runner race in January before falling, reengaging in the Grade 1 Irish Arkle Novice Chase, where he jumped too keenly throughout the race to never cause any problems for his rivals.

With Shiskin and Energumeme the main protagonists in the race, Captain Guinness has been overlooked unfairly in the market and has a compelling profile to finish in the places under the ever-so reliable Rachel Blackmore at a double-figure price, after being so unlucky, an understatement to say the least, at last year's festival. 
Put The Kettle On won the race last year for Henry De Bromhead with six-year-olds successful in the previous three renewals boosting Captain Guinness's credentials.
​
Minella Indo – Gold Cup (each-way)

In the most prestigious race at the Cheltenham Festival, Al Boum Photo will aim to become the fifth horse, after Best Mate, Golden Miller, Cottage Rake and Arkle, to win three Cheltenham Gold Cups. He looks the most likely winner on paper, but the forgotten horse has to be 2020 RSA Insurance Novices' Chase runner-up Minella Indo.

Minella Indo finished second behind fellow Gold Cup challenger Champ in one of the most exhilarating RSA Chases in recent years, at last year's festival, in one of the most dramatic finishes you are ever going to see up the Cheltenham Hill. If you haven't already seen the race, firstly, why haven't you seen it and secondly, I recommend having a watch back and try and come to a viable conclusion on how Champ was able to win the race. Plaudits to Barry Geraghty, maybe.

On his seasonal reappearance, Henry De Bromhead's 2019 Albert Bartlett winner won comfortably at Wexford in October with a 25 length victory over 2020 Kim Muir winner Milan Native by 25 lengths. Minella Indo fell in the Savills Chase won by another horse he will repose in the Gold Cup next month, A Plus Tard. On first observations, Minella Indo had never fallen in his career, so I've dismissed that as an abnormality. In the Grade 1 Irish Gold Cup at the Dublin Racing Festival, the son of Beat Hallo finished fourth of five runners, six and three-quarter lengths behind the winner Kemboy.

Minella Indo had excuses for those two runs due to ground dependency and not being ridden predominately enough, but cannot afford another poor run. Third-time lucky?

One For The Team - (Ultima Steeplechase Handicap)


When the handicap weights were declared for the 2021 Cheltenham Festival, Nick Williams would have grinned like a Cheshire cat. Surprisingly, One For The Team's weight was allocated as 10-6 (140), the same weight as last year's winner, the late The Conditional.

The son of Shirocco is still a maiden from five attempts this campaign, after a 244 days break, but has finished third being McFabulous, second to G1 winner Next Destination and fifth to progressive novice Shan Blue. Last time out, in the 3m Sky Bet Handicap Chase, in front of the ITV Cameras, One For The Team, travelled well but emptied four-out and wasn't in the picture for the final stages of the race.

There is no guarantee that One For The Team will get into the race, as another 20 horses will need to withdraw, but if he does get into the race, he will more than likely go off bottom-weight, like The Conditional. Concerns over the trip (3m and half a furlong) have been over-empathised as the seven-year-old won over 3m beating Dolphin Square by 14 lengths in February last year.

Nick Williams was successful with 
Coo Star Sivola in 2018 was off 10-10 (142) and English trained horses being successful in the previous six renewals of the race. One For The Team fits a similar profile to The Conditional, who liked to race mid-field and then take advantage of tiring horses towards the end of a race.

The previous 12 winners of the race had run at least five times over hurdles and won at once. One For The Team has raced seven times over hurdles and been successful once.





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Cheltenham festival 2021 ante-post selections: part One.

2/16/2021

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Welcome to part one of my two-part ante-post selections for the 2021 Cheltenham Festival.

Zanahiyr - (JCB Triumph Hurdle)

The four-old chestnut gelding heads to the Cheltenham Festival with an unblemished record over jumps. Hopeful rumours on social media flirted with the idea of Zanahiyr running in the opening race of the festival, the Supreme Novices Hurdle. It has been confirmed the daughter of Zariyna will run in the Triumph Hurdle.​ Zanahiyr will meet a maximum of 22 rivals in his age-group (four-year-olds) including, a mouth-watering clash with stablemate Quilixios unless the unbeaten gelding reroutes to the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle.

After bypassing the Dublin Racing Festival, which didn't come as a great surprise too many, Zanahiyr will be fresh for his Cheltenham bow. Two victories this campaign over Saint Sam (the current favourite for the Boodies Juvenile Novice Hurdle) by a combined 15.5 lengths and most recently over Busselton, fancied as well in the Boodies. 

One of the bankers for the festival alongside Envoi Allen, two trends for the race are not in Zanahiyr's favour. Only three of the last 12 favourites have been successful, albeit Goshen's fall, it would have been four, and the previous 12 winners had a run within 55 days of the race, Zanahiyr's run came 76 days ago.

Stats aren't always everything.

The Bosses Oscar - (Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle)

The Bosses Oscar heads to the Cheltenham Festival as the current ante-post favourite for the Pertemps Network Final Handicap. The Bosses Oscar qualified over the festive period at Leopardstown, finishing second to Dandy Mag, a rival he will attempt to reverse form at the festival.


Sadly, Davy Russell will miss the festival due to the horrific vertebrae injury he suffered in October with either Jack Kennedy or Bryan Cooper deputising the ride. If The Bosses Oscar goes on to victory in the Pertemps Network Final, there will be no apology from The Bosses Oscar's box, running off a preposterous mark of 151 (11-10). If that ridiculous mark, raised your eyebrows, like mine, the less said, the better. Have a watch back at the race he ran at last year's festival in the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockey Handicap (5th behind Indefatigable) to reassure yourself.

Nine of the last 12 winners were between the age of 6 and 8 (The Bosses Oscar is six), but 11 of the 12 winners had their last run within 61 days of the race. The Bosses Oscar's last run came 76 days ago, but Irish horses have won the previous five renewals of the race. 

Amongst his market rivals, Fergal O'Brien trained Imperial Alcazar could be the main danger, but horses who have won a Pertemps Qualifier do not have the best record in the race. Column of Fire would be a big player in the race, after the way he cantered clear in the Martin Pipe at last year before coming down at the penultimate hurdle with the race at his mercy. 

Run Wild Fred - (Kim Muir Challenge Cup)

Saint Roi (County Hurdle) and Dame De Compagnie (Coral Cup) were the handicap plot-jobs of last year's festival. Run Wild Fred, hold my bale. To the 
astonishment of many Run Wild Fred's mark of 140 (11-7) wasn't amended by at least three or four pounds by the British Handicapper.

Run Wild Fred won a Grade 3 Hurdle in February 2020, pulling-clear of the well-fancied Willie Mullins horse Lord Royal over 3m at Punchestown and then finished ahead of The Big Dog at Punchestown at the end of December. Subsequently, The Big Dog has franked that form by his victory in the Grand National Trial Handicap Chase at Punchestown. Last time out, the seven-year-old was 
no match for his stablemate Coko Beach ​in the Thyestes, jumping ​the final two fences loosely, with Sean Flanagan visibly holding on to the reins, eventually getting-up to finish second.

Run Wild Fred holds an entry in the National Hunt Chase, but is unlikely to take up that agenda of running over a further four furlongs. Eleven of the previous 12 winners of the race had their last run within 76 days, a trend Run Wild Fred fits running 56 days ago.

Wild Receiver - (Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle)

Wide Receiver's rating of 136 (11-1) will more than likely see him run off bottom weight in the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle.

On his latest run at the Dublin Racing Festival, he was 10th of 13 in the Grade 1 Chanelle Pharma Novice Hurdle, which was impressively won by Appreciate It, the current favourite for the Supreme Novices Hurdle. His ante-post price drifted to a double-figure price after being beaten by respectively 200/1, 100/1 and 80/1 rides. I wouldn't be overly concerned as his aim is a handicap at the Cheltenham Festival.


The £410,000 winning point-to-pointer could make a mockery off bottom weight/close to bottom-weight and fits the criterion of being the right age (5 or 6) and days since the last run (40 days) to win a Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle.

If Wide Receiver does indeed get into the race off bottom-weight, no horse will get to within six lengths when is he charging-up the Cheltenham Hill to victory.

Koshari - (Coral Cup)

In my opinion, the Coral Cup has to be the hardest handicap at the Cheltenham Festival to prognosticate the winner in. Eight different trainers and ten double-priced horses have won the race in the last 12 years. Only two favourites have been victorious. Get out your dartboard, get the entries and throw three darts to see who your final selections for the race are.

I've decided to side with Willie Mullins Koshari, who will have the experience of last year's most winning jockey at the festival (Paul Townend) on aboard. 
Sixth over 3m at Leopardstown at the Dublin Racing Festival, the son of Walk In The Park made a calamitous mistake at the third, in the process protecting his mark (144) for the Coral Cup under an eye-catching ride from Paul Townend. Given a reassessed mark of 146 (11st 3) by the British Handicapper could result in him going off favourite on the day.

Winner of a 2m 4f contest at Cork after an 875-day break, the extra furlough in the Coral Cup shouldn't cause Koshari any distribution in giving Willie Mullins his second Coral Cup. Willie Mullins knows how to win the race, doing so with Bleu Berry in 2018, and Koshari looks a similar type in this year's renewal.

Embittered - (Grand Annual)

Third in the County Hurdle last year behind Saint Roi (one of the most well-handicapped horses you will ever see run in a handicap at the festival), Joseph O'Brien's Embittered looks like the bet to have in this year's very open Grand Annual.

Embittered was fourth of nine behind Energumeme, who could cause Shiskin some real problems in the Arkle with his front-running display at the Dublin Racing Festival off and could see his current rating of 145 lowered for the Grand Annual. This campaign has seen four different riders (Rachel Blackmore, Jack Kennedy, Sean Flanagan and David Meyler) as a slight concern regarding consistency and how whoever Embittered will be ridden. Joseph could call upon the services of JJ Slevin again for the festival next month.

Embittered could likely go off in the first three of the betting, with Sky Pirate rerouted to another of the handicaps at the festival that gives him an even better chance of winning the race. Course form at the Cheltenham Festival is quintessential and worthy of noting. 11 of the last 12 winners ran at least five times over hurdles, a trend Embittered fits.

Riviere D'etel - (Fred Winter Juvenile Novices Hurdle)


Riviere D'etel could be a carbon copy in this year's renewal as last year's winner Aramax. The four-year-old was given a mark of 133 after being entered at Musselburgh in February to establish what rating she would get from the British Handicapper. Riviere D'etel's lenient mark of 133 (10-9) came as a surprise in a race where she will enjoy the pace.

Riviere D'etel will arrive at the festival in fine form after finishing behind the impressive Thedevilscoachman (a lively outsider for the Supreme Novices Hurdle) at Navan; that form boosted by his victory in a listed contest at Punchestown. Previously Riviere D'etel won over 2m at Punchestown with her nearest rival three and a half lengths back. Fillies have an outstanding record in the race. Off a mark of 134 (reassessed by the British Handicapper), the mare will be fresh for the race after bypassing the Dublin Racing Festival. 

The last 12 winners of the race have run at least three times in their careers over hurdles with Irish trainers being successful in the previous three renewals. Riviere D'etel fits perfectly into those trends.

The Storyteller - Stayers Hurdle (each-way)

The Storyteller is the most consistent horse in training. A foal of Bally Bolshoi has raced 35 times and placed 21 times. Across the UK and Ireland, The Storyteller is a permanent figure in the Winners Enclosure.

In one of the most competitive races of the week, The Storyteller has to be the forgotten horse in the Stayer Hurdle market. The top two stayers in the division, Paisley Park and Thyme Hill, dual Pertemps Network Final Handicap winner Sire Du Berlais and last year's first and second Lisnagar Oscar and Ronald Pump, will all hopefully line-up next month. 

Saying The Storyteller has been overlooked in the market would be an enormous understatement. Until the Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup at the Dublin Racing Festival, the partnership between Keith Donoghue and The Storyteller was unblemished, unbeaten in four, including a Grade 1 success at Down Royal and Grade 3 at Punchestown. There is certainly no disgrace beaten by Kemboy, who has won a Punchestown Gold Cup and Bowl Chase at the Grand National meeting.

Victories between 2m 3f to 3m will mean the 2m 4f distance will come as no problem to The Storyteller after winning the 2018 Brown Advisory Plate and finishing 2nd to Sire Du Berlais in the Pertemps Final at last year's festival. One of the biggest trends of finding winners at the Cheltenham Festival is the previous course and distance form. Look no further than The Storyteller's record at the festival, 2PU1. The Storyteller's last seven runs boost form figures of 1121122 and should not be ignored in a competitive race at a double-figure price.


































































































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