Welcome to part one of my two-part ante-post selections for the 2021 Cheltenham Festival.
Zanahiyr - (JCB Triumph Hurdle)
Gordon Elliott's four-old chestnut gelding heads to the Cheltenham Festival with an unblemished record over jumps. Hopeful rumours on social media flirted with the idea of Zanahiyr running in the opening race of the festival, the Supreme Novices Hurdle. Gordon Elliott has since confirmed he will run in the Triumph Hurdle.
Zanahiyr will meet a maximum of 22 rivals in his age-group (four-year-olds) including, a mouth-watering clash with stablemate Quilixios unless the unbeaten gelding reroutes to the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle.
After bypassing the Dublin Racing Festival, which didn't come as a great surprise too many, Zanahiyr will be fresh for his Cheltenham bow. Two victories this campaign over Saint Sam (the current favourite for the Boodies) by a combined 15.5 lengths and most recently over Busselton, fancied in the Boodies.
One of the bankers for the festival alongside Envoi Allen, two trends for the race are not in Zanahiyr's favour. Only three of the last 12 favourites have been successful, albeit Goshen's fall, it would have been four, and the previous 12 winners had a run within 55 days of the race, Zanahiyr's run came 76 days ago.
Stats aren't always everything.
The Bosses Oscar - (Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle)
Gordon Elliott's battalion heading to the Cheltenham Festival includes The Bosses Oscar, the current ante-post favourite for the Pertemps Network Final Handicap. The Bosses Oscar qualified over the festive period at Leopardstown finishing, second to Dandy Mag, a rival he will attempt to reverse form with next month.
Irish horses have won the last five renewals of the race and Gordon Elliott the previous three. The only imperfection is the mark of 151 from the British Handicapper.
Sadly Davy Russell will miss the Cheltenham Festival due to the horrific vertebrae injury he suffered in October with either Jack Kennedy or Bryan Cooper will take the ride. If The Bosses Oscar does indeed win the Pertemps next month, there will be no apology from Davy Russell and, there isn't certainly an apology coming from The Bosses Oscar from his box at Cullentra House.
If, like myself, you raised your eyebrows, nevermind metaphorically, at his ridiculously high-mark, less said the better, have a watch back at the race he ran at last year's festival in the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockey Handicap to reassure yourselves.
Nine of the last 12 winners were between the age of 6 and 8 (The Bosses Oscar is six), but 11 of the 12 winners had their last run within 61 days of the race. The Bosses Oscar last run came 76 days ago.
Amongst his market rivals, Fergal O'Brien Imperial Alcazar could be the main danger, but horses who have won a Pertemps Qualifier do not have the best record in the race. Column of Fire would be a big player in the race, after the way he cantered clear in the Martin Pipe at last year's festival before coming down at the penultimate hurdle with the race at his mercy.
Run Wild Fred - (Kim Muir Challenge Cup)
The theme of Gordon Elliott runners (incoming to be named top trainer at the festival this year) continues with Run Wild Fred, the handicap plot job of the festival. His Irish mark currently stands at 140 and still needs to be reassessed by the British Handicapper and anything under 145 will see him get into the race.
Royal Wild Fred won a Grade 3 Hurdle in February 2020, pulling-clear of the well-fancied Willie Mullins horse Lord Royal over 3m at Punchestown and then finished ahead of The Big Dog. Subsequently, The Big Dog has gone on to win the Grand National Trial Handicap Chase at Punchestown at the end of January.
He was no match for the well-handicapped Coko Beach in the Goffs Thyestes Handicap Chase on 28th January with an before the final fence leaving him with no chance of winning the race.
Gordon Elliott won the race last year with a similar type in Milan Native. Run Wild Fred holds an entry in the National Hunt Chase but is unlikely to take-up that agenda to run over a further 4 furlongs. Eleven of the previous 12 winners of the race had their last run 76 days before the race, a trend Run Wild Fred fits running 56 days ago.
A mark of 146 would prospectively mean he could miss the festival for a second consecutive year.
Wild Receiver - (Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle)
As the curtain sadly draws down on another year at the Cheltenham Festival, Gordon Elliott's dominance in Cheltenham Handicaps looks like it could well continue in the form of the well-handicapped Wide Receiver.
Wide Receiver's current rating of 136 could see him get into the race off bottom weight or be very close to that.
On his latest run at the Dublin Racing Festival, he was 10th of 13 in the Grade 1 Chanelle Pharma Novice Hurdle, which was impressively won by Appreciate It, the current favourite for the Supreme Novices Hurdle. His ante-post price drifted to a double-figure price after being beaten by respectively 200/1, 100/1 and 80/1 rides. I wouldn't be overly concerned as his aim is a handicap at the Cheltenham Festival.
The £410,000 winning point-to-pointer could make a mockery off bottom weight/close to bottom-weight and fits the criterion of being the right age (5 or 6) and days since the last run (40 days) to win a Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle.
If Wide Receiver gets into the race off bottom-weight, no horse will get to within six lengths of him when is he charging-up the Cheltenham Hill to victory.
Koshari - (Coral Cup)
In my opinion, the Coral Cup is the hardest handicap at the Cheltenham Festival to prognosticate the winner. Eight different trainers and ten double-priced horses have won the race in the last 12 years. Only two favourites have been victorious. Get out your dartboard, get the entries and throw three darts to see who your final selections for the race are.
I've decided to side with Willie Mullins Koshari, who will have the experience of last year's most winning jockey at the festival (Paul Townend) on aboard.
Sixth over 3m at Leopardstown at the Dublin Racing Festival, after making a calamitous mistake at the third giving him no chance of winning the race, he protected his mark (144) for the Coral Cup in the process. He still needs to be reassessed by the British Handicapper, but I hold my breath with belated anticipation that we don't get another The Bosses Oscar esque mark.
Winner of a 2m 4f contest at Cork an extra furlough (Coral Cup – 2m 5f) shouldn't cause Koshari much distribution in giving Willie Mullins his second Coral Cup. Willie Mullins knows how to win the race, doing so with Bleu Berry in 2018, and Koshari looks a similar type in this year's renewal.
Embittered - (Grand Annual)
Third in the County Hurdle last year behind Saint Roi (one of the most well-handicapped horses you will ever see run in a handicap at the festival), Joseph O'Brien's Embittered looks like the bet to have in this year's very open Grand Annual.
Embittered was fourth of nine behind Energumeme, who could cause Shiskin some real problems in the Arkle with his front-running display at the Dublin Racing Festival off and could see his current rating of 145 lowered for the Grand Annual. This campaign has seen four different riders (Rachel Blackmore, Jack Kennedy, Sean Flanagan and David Meyler) as a slight concern regarding consistency and how whoever Embittered will be ridden. Joseph could call upon the services of JJ Slevin again for the festival next month.
Embittered could likely go off in the first three of the betting, with Sky Pirate rerouted to another of the handicaps at the festival that gives him an even better chance of winning the race.
Course form at the Cheltenham Festival is quintessential and worthy of noting. 11 of the last 12 winners ran at least five times over hurdles, a trend Embittered fits.
Riviere D'etel - (Fred Winter Juvenile Novices Hurdle)
Riviere D'etel could be a carbon copy in this year's renewal as last year's winner Aramax. Gordon Elliott has won the race three times in eight years and decided to go 'fishing' at Musselburgh earlier this month to establish what rating the British Handicapper would give some of his more fancied runners. Riviere D'etel's lenient mark of 133 came as a surprise to many in a race where she will enjoy the pace.
Riviere D'etel will arrive at the festival in fine form after finishing behind the impressive Thedevilscoachman (a lively outsider for the Supreme Novices Hurdle) at Navan; that form boosted by his victory in a listed contest at Punchestown. Previously Riviere D'etel won over 2m at Punchestown with her nearest rival three and a half lengths back.
Fillies have an outstanding record in the race. Off a mark of 133, the mare will be fresh for the race after Gordon Elliott decided to bypass the Dublin Racing Festival.
The last 12 winners of the race have run at least three times in their careers over hurdles and Irish trainers have been successful in the previous three renewals. Riviere D'etel fits perfectly into those trends.
The Storyteller - (Stayers Hurdle)
The Storyteller is the most consistent horse in training. A foal of Bally Bolshoi has raced 35 times and placed 21 times. Across the UK and Ireland, The Storyteller is a permanent figure in the Winners Enclosure.
In one of the most competitive races of the week, The Storyteller has to be the forgotten horse in the Stayer Hurdle market. The top two stayers in the division, Paisley Park and Thyme Hill, dual Pertemps Network Final Handicap winner Sire Du Berlais and last year's first and second Lisnagar Oscar and Ronald Pump, will all hopefully line-up next month.
Saying The Storyteller has been overlooked in the market would be an enormous understatement. Until the Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup at the Dublin Racing Festival, the partnership between Keith Donoghue and The Storyteller was unblemished, unbeaten in four, including a Grade 1 success at Down Royal and Grade 3 at Punchestown. There is certainly no disgrace beaten by Kemboy, who has won a Punchestown Gold Cup and Bowl Chase at the Grand National meeting.
Victories between 2m 3f to 3m will mean the 2m 4f distance will come as no problem to The Storyteller after winning the 2018 Brown Advisory Plate and finishing 2nd to Sire Du Berlais in the Pertemps Final at last year's festival. One of the biggest trends of finding winners at the Cheltenham Festival is the previous course and distance form. Look no further than The Storyteller's record at the festival, 2PU1.
The Storyteller's last seven runs boost form figures of 1121122 and shouldn't be overlooked in a competitive race at a double-figure price.
Zanahiyr - (JCB Triumph Hurdle)
Gordon Elliott's four-old chestnut gelding heads to the Cheltenham Festival with an unblemished record over jumps. Hopeful rumours on social media flirted with the idea of Zanahiyr running in the opening race of the festival, the Supreme Novices Hurdle. Gordon Elliott has since confirmed he will run in the Triumph Hurdle.
Zanahiyr will meet a maximum of 22 rivals in his age-group (four-year-olds) including, a mouth-watering clash with stablemate Quilixios unless the unbeaten gelding reroutes to the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle.
After bypassing the Dublin Racing Festival, which didn't come as a great surprise too many, Zanahiyr will be fresh for his Cheltenham bow. Two victories this campaign over Saint Sam (the current favourite for the Boodies) by a combined 15.5 lengths and most recently over Busselton, fancied in the Boodies.
One of the bankers for the festival alongside Envoi Allen, two trends for the race are not in Zanahiyr's favour. Only three of the last 12 favourites have been successful, albeit Goshen's fall, it would have been four, and the previous 12 winners had a run within 55 days of the race, Zanahiyr's run came 76 days ago.
Stats aren't always everything.
The Bosses Oscar - (Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle)
Gordon Elliott's battalion heading to the Cheltenham Festival includes The Bosses Oscar, the current ante-post favourite for the Pertemps Network Final Handicap. The Bosses Oscar qualified over the festive period at Leopardstown finishing, second to Dandy Mag, a rival he will attempt to reverse form with next month.
Irish horses have won the last five renewals of the race and Gordon Elliott the previous three. The only imperfection is the mark of 151 from the British Handicapper.
Sadly Davy Russell will miss the Cheltenham Festival due to the horrific vertebrae injury he suffered in October with either Jack Kennedy or Bryan Cooper will take the ride. If The Bosses Oscar does indeed win the Pertemps next month, there will be no apology from Davy Russell and, there isn't certainly an apology coming from The Bosses Oscar from his box at Cullentra House.
If, like myself, you raised your eyebrows, nevermind metaphorically, at his ridiculously high-mark, less said the better, have a watch back at the race he ran at last year's festival in the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockey Handicap to reassure yourselves.
Nine of the last 12 winners were between the age of 6 and 8 (The Bosses Oscar is six), but 11 of the 12 winners had their last run within 61 days of the race. The Bosses Oscar last run came 76 days ago.
Amongst his market rivals, Fergal O'Brien Imperial Alcazar could be the main danger, but horses who have won a Pertemps Qualifier do not have the best record in the race. Column of Fire would be a big player in the race, after the way he cantered clear in the Martin Pipe at last year's festival before coming down at the penultimate hurdle with the race at his mercy.
Run Wild Fred - (Kim Muir Challenge Cup)
The theme of Gordon Elliott runners (incoming to be named top trainer at the festival this year) continues with Run Wild Fred, the handicap plot job of the festival. His Irish mark currently stands at 140 and still needs to be reassessed by the British Handicapper and anything under 145 will see him get into the race.
Royal Wild Fred won a Grade 3 Hurdle in February 2020, pulling-clear of the well-fancied Willie Mullins horse Lord Royal over 3m at Punchestown and then finished ahead of The Big Dog. Subsequently, The Big Dog has gone on to win the Grand National Trial Handicap Chase at Punchestown at the end of January.
He was no match for the well-handicapped Coko Beach in the Goffs Thyestes Handicap Chase on 28th January with an before the final fence leaving him with no chance of winning the race.
Gordon Elliott won the race last year with a similar type in Milan Native. Run Wild Fred holds an entry in the National Hunt Chase but is unlikely to take-up that agenda to run over a further 4 furlongs. Eleven of the previous 12 winners of the race had their last run 76 days before the race, a trend Run Wild Fred fits running 56 days ago.
A mark of 146 would prospectively mean he could miss the festival for a second consecutive year.
Wild Receiver - (Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle)
As the curtain sadly draws down on another year at the Cheltenham Festival, Gordon Elliott's dominance in Cheltenham Handicaps looks like it could well continue in the form of the well-handicapped Wide Receiver.
Wide Receiver's current rating of 136 could see him get into the race off bottom weight or be very close to that.
On his latest run at the Dublin Racing Festival, he was 10th of 13 in the Grade 1 Chanelle Pharma Novice Hurdle, which was impressively won by Appreciate It, the current favourite for the Supreme Novices Hurdle. His ante-post price drifted to a double-figure price after being beaten by respectively 200/1, 100/1 and 80/1 rides. I wouldn't be overly concerned as his aim is a handicap at the Cheltenham Festival.
The £410,000 winning point-to-pointer could make a mockery off bottom weight/close to bottom-weight and fits the criterion of being the right age (5 or 6) and days since the last run (40 days) to win a Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle.
If Wide Receiver gets into the race off bottom-weight, no horse will get to within six lengths of him when is he charging-up the Cheltenham Hill to victory.
Koshari - (Coral Cup)
In my opinion, the Coral Cup is the hardest handicap at the Cheltenham Festival to prognosticate the winner. Eight different trainers and ten double-priced horses have won the race in the last 12 years. Only two favourites have been victorious. Get out your dartboard, get the entries and throw three darts to see who your final selections for the race are.
I've decided to side with Willie Mullins Koshari, who will have the experience of last year's most winning jockey at the festival (Paul Townend) on aboard.
Sixth over 3m at Leopardstown at the Dublin Racing Festival, after making a calamitous mistake at the third giving him no chance of winning the race, he protected his mark (144) for the Coral Cup in the process. He still needs to be reassessed by the British Handicapper, but I hold my breath with belated anticipation that we don't get another The Bosses Oscar esque mark.
Winner of a 2m 4f contest at Cork an extra furlough (Coral Cup – 2m 5f) shouldn't cause Koshari much distribution in giving Willie Mullins his second Coral Cup. Willie Mullins knows how to win the race, doing so with Bleu Berry in 2018, and Koshari looks a similar type in this year's renewal.
Embittered - (Grand Annual)
Third in the County Hurdle last year behind Saint Roi (one of the most well-handicapped horses you will ever see run in a handicap at the festival), Joseph O'Brien's Embittered looks like the bet to have in this year's very open Grand Annual.
Embittered was fourth of nine behind Energumeme, who could cause Shiskin some real problems in the Arkle with his front-running display at the Dublin Racing Festival off and could see his current rating of 145 lowered for the Grand Annual. This campaign has seen four different riders (Rachel Blackmore, Jack Kennedy, Sean Flanagan and David Meyler) as a slight concern regarding consistency and how whoever Embittered will be ridden. Joseph could call upon the services of JJ Slevin again for the festival next month.
Embittered could likely go off in the first three of the betting, with Sky Pirate rerouted to another of the handicaps at the festival that gives him an even better chance of winning the race.
Course form at the Cheltenham Festival is quintessential and worthy of noting. 11 of the last 12 winners ran at least five times over hurdles, a trend Embittered fits.
Riviere D'etel - (Fred Winter Juvenile Novices Hurdle)
Riviere D'etel could be a carbon copy in this year's renewal as last year's winner Aramax. Gordon Elliott has won the race three times in eight years and decided to go 'fishing' at Musselburgh earlier this month to establish what rating the British Handicapper would give some of his more fancied runners. Riviere D'etel's lenient mark of 133 came as a surprise to many in a race where she will enjoy the pace.
Riviere D'etel will arrive at the festival in fine form after finishing behind the impressive Thedevilscoachman (a lively outsider for the Supreme Novices Hurdle) at Navan; that form boosted by his victory in a listed contest at Punchestown. Previously Riviere D'etel won over 2m at Punchestown with her nearest rival three and a half lengths back.
Fillies have an outstanding record in the race. Off a mark of 133, the mare will be fresh for the race after Gordon Elliott decided to bypass the Dublin Racing Festival.
The last 12 winners of the race have run at least three times in their careers over hurdles and Irish trainers have been successful in the previous three renewals. Riviere D'etel fits perfectly into those trends.
The Storyteller - (Stayers Hurdle)
The Storyteller is the most consistent horse in training. A foal of Bally Bolshoi has raced 35 times and placed 21 times. Across the UK and Ireland, The Storyteller is a permanent figure in the Winners Enclosure.
In one of the most competitive races of the week, The Storyteller has to be the forgotten horse in the Stayer Hurdle market. The top two stayers in the division, Paisley Park and Thyme Hill, dual Pertemps Network Final Handicap winner Sire Du Berlais and last year's first and second Lisnagar Oscar and Ronald Pump, will all hopefully line-up next month.
Saying The Storyteller has been overlooked in the market would be an enormous understatement. Until the Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup at the Dublin Racing Festival, the partnership between Keith Donoghue and The Storyteller was unblemished, unbeaten in four, including a Grade 1 success at Down Royal and Grade 3 at Punchestown. There is certainly no disgrace beaten by Kemboy, who has won a Punchestown Gold Cup and Bowl Chase at the Grand National meeting.
Victories between 2m 3f to 3m will mean the 2m 4f distance will come as no problem to The Storyteller after winning the 2018 Brown Advisory Plate and finishing 2nd to Sire Du Berlais in the Pertemps Final at last year's festival. One of the biggest trends of finding winners at the Cheltenham Festival is the previous course and distance form. Look no further than The Storyteller's record at the festival, 2PU1.
The Storyteller's last seven runs boost form figures of 1121122 and shouldn't be overlooked in a competitive race at a double-figure price.
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