Welcome to the second part of my two-part ante-post selections for the 2021 Cheltenham Festival.
Black Tears – Mares Hurdle (each-way)
With Benie Des Dieux ruled-out of the Cheltenham Festival and a number of the leading market principles prospectively redirected to other races (Honeysuckle – Champion Hurdle, Roksana – Stayers Hurdle, Dame De Compagnie and Elimay – Mares Chase and Verdana Blue and Great White Shark respective handicaps at the festival) the race-day card could have already formed.
Black Tears will take the route out of handicap company and take her place in the Mares Hurdle. Second in the Coral Cup, off a mark of 144, at last year's festival behind Dame De Compagnie (one of the biggest plot-jobs of the festival), she looked like she had every chance of winning the race before Barry Geraghty pulled further clear to win. The seven-year-old mare of Our Girl Salley took the same preparation, as last year, with victory in the rearranged Quevega Hurdle at Punchestown (beating The Getaway Star by five lengths) on 1st March.
Concertista has to be considered one of the NAPs of the festival after she won the Mares' Novices' Hurdle by 12 lengths at last year's festival and twice previously has the beating of Black Tears in December at Leopardstown and in the 2019 Mares' Novices' Hurdle when Black Tears finished fourth. Black Tears looks to be one of the each-way players in the race that looks likely on race day to have been decimated compared to the current entries and holds a quintessential factor, previous course and distance form.
Raynas World – Mares Hurdle (each-way)
One horse that has gone under the radar is Raynas World. Philip Kirby's six-year-old mare finished third behind Concertista in the Mares' Novices' Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival last year at 100/1 in a race where she never looked to be posing a serious challenge until the final stages of the race where she finished like a rocket. I would certainly recommend having a watch back of the race if you haven't already done so.
After a 219-days break, Raynas World reappeared at Catterick, where she was three and three-quarter lengths behind Bollin Neil at Catterick by three and three-quarter lengths. Regular rider Thomas Dowson was back on board when she returned to the Winners Enclosure at Hexham in October. Since that victory, she hasn't returned to the Winners Enclosure but produced two creditable efforts behind Stainsby Girl and Nada To Prada respectively in smaller fields, which isn't her forte.
All of her wins have come on either soft or heavy ground. The prognostication, on the opening day of the festival, is due to be soft ground. It could well be worth considering Raynas World as an each-way alternative to the short-priced Concertista, who is looking even more likely to go off as odds-on favourite on the day.
Put The Kettle On – Champion Chase (each-way)
Course and distance form at the Cheltenham Festival is quintessential. Put The Kettle On won the Arkle Chase at last year's festival with remarkable conviction with a one and a quarter victory over the well-fancied Fakir D'oudairies.
There had been inklings that trainer Henry De Bromhead's mare would bypass the Champion Chase and line-up in the newest race to grace the Cheltenham Festival, Mares Novices Chase, but now seems to be going down the Champion Chase route, although nothing has been confirmed. After a 250 days break, Put The Kettle On was victorious by one and a quarter lengths over 2019 Arkle winner Duc Des Genievres at the Cheltenham November meeting.
Six-year-olds don't have the best record in the race, not winning since 2009 (Master Minded), but two key trends are in Put The Kettle The On's favour. 16 of the last 18 winners of the Arkle Chase have gone to place in the Champion Chase the following season and the last 12 winners have raced in at least seven chase runs and won five times. Put The Kettle On has eight chases under her saddle winning six of them, with an impressive 75% strike rate.
The daughter of Name For Fame record at Cheltenham is yet to be blemished in three races, including in the Arkle Chase at last year's festival and will receive the 7lbs Mares Allowance unlike many others in the race.
Without Chancun Pour Soi (astounding Willie Mullins has never won the Champion Chase), Put The Kettle On could easily outrun her current double-figure odds.
Melon – (Ryanair)
Is Melon one of the unluckiest horses to ever run at the Cheltenham Festival or a case of him not wanting to get his head in front at Cheltenham? Melon has finished second at the last four festivals to firstly the late Labaik in the 2017 Supreme Novices' Hurdle, dual Champion Hurdle heroine Buveur D'Air in 2018 and the late Espoir D'Allen in the running of the 2019 Champion Hurdle.
In last year's Marsh Novices' Chase, Melon looked to have won the race when he and Samcro hit the line together but was officially declared to have lost the race by a nose. If you were to watch back the respective races, Melon has been one of the most luckless horses to ever taken apart at the festival but still is one of the most dependable each-way bets of this year's meeting.
Melon was third behind Kemboy and the third favourite for the Gold Cup, A Plus Tard, in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown in December in another race where it looked Melon would be in Winners Enclosure before failing to see out the final furlong. On his latest run, the nine-year-old finished last of five behind Kemboy in the Irish Gold Cup in a disappointing performance, but the ground could have played a factor. Three key trends favour Melon in the race, eleven of the previous twelve winners of the Ryanair Chase have had two runs at Cheltenham, with all of the twelve winners with at least four runs over hurdles and Willie Mullins trained last year's winner. Melon has raced at Cheltenham four times and has had 14 runs over hurdles.
Captain Guinness – Arkle Chase (each-way)
Henry De Bromhead's six-year-old has ensured a burdensome campaign after being diagnosed with a heart problem after being pulled-up half-way through his seasonal reappearance at Tipperary.
After a 52 days break, the mare of Presenting D'Azy, won a 17 runner Beginners Chase at Punchestown at the end of December, beating Midnight Run and Alfa Mix, with no adverse effects of the race at Tipperary. Brought-down two out by Elixir D'Ainay or Asterion Forlonge (who jumped aggressively to his right throughout his race), depending on how you analysed the race, Captain Guinness looked to be contention approaching the Cheltenham Hill. It wouldn't have come as a surprise if he had placed behind Shiskin and Abacadabras in last year's Supreme Novices' Hurdle.
Captain Guinness will attempt to reverse form with Shiskin and the front-running enigma Energumeme next month. He finished second to Energumeme at Naas in a four-runner race in January before falling, reengaging in the Grade 1 Irish Arkle Novice Chase, where he jumped too keenly throughout the race to never cause any problems for his rivals.
With Shiskin and Energumeme the main protagonists in the race, Captain Guinness has been overlooked unfairly in the market and has a compelling profile to finish in the places under the ever-so reliable Rachel Blackmore at a double-figure price, after being so unlucky, an understatement to say the least, at last year's festival. Put The Kettle On won the race last year for Henry De Bromhead with six-year-olds successful in the previous three renewals boosting Captain Guinness's credentials.
Minella Indo – Gold Cup (each-way)
In the most prestigious race at the Cheltenham Festival, Al Boum Photo will aim to become the fifth horse, after Best Mate, Golden Miller, Cottage Rake and Arkle, to win three Cheltenham Gold Cups. He looks the most likely winner on paper, but the forgotten horse has to be 2020 RSA Insurance Novices' Chase runner-up Minella Indo.
Minella Indo finished second behind fellow Gold Cup challenger Champ in one of the most exhilarating RSA Chases in recent years, at last year's festival, in one of the most dramatic finishes you are ever going to see up the Cheltenham Hill. If you haven't already seen the race, firstly, why haven't you seen it and secondly, I recommend having a watch back and try and come to a viable conclusion on how Champ was able to win the race. Plaudits to Barry Geraghty, maybe.
On his seasonal reappearance, Henry De Bromhead's 2019 Albert Bartlett winner won comfortably at Wexford in October with a 25 length victory over 2020 Kim Muir winner Milan Native by 25 lengths. Minella Indo fell in the Savills Chase won by another horse he will repose in the Gold Cup next month, A Plus Tard. On first observations, Minella Indo had never fallen in his career, so I've dismissed that as an abnormality. In the Grade 1 Irish Gold Cup at the Dublin Racing Festival, the son of Beat Hallo finished fourth of five runners, six and three-quarter lengths behind the winner Kemboy.
Minella Indo had excuses for those two runs due to ground dependency and not being ridden predominately enough, but cannot afford another poor run. Third-time lucky?
One For The Team - (Ultima Steeplechase Handicap)
When the handicap weights were declared for the 2021 Cheltenham Festival, Nick Williams would have grinned like a Cheshire cat. Surprisingly, One For The Team's weight was allocated as 10-6 (140), the same weight as last year's winner, the late The Conditional.
The son of Shirocco is still a maiden from five attempts this campaign, after a 244 days break, but has finished third being McFabulous, second to G1 winner Next Destination and fifth to progressive novice Shan Blue. Last time out, in the 3m Sky Bet Handicap Chase, in front of the ITV Cameras, One For The Team, travelled well but emptied four-out and wasn't in the picture for the final stages of the race.
There is no guarantee that One For The Team will get into the race, as another 20 horses will need to withdraw, but if he does get into the race, he will more than likely go off bottom-weight, like The Conditional. Concerns over the trip (3m and half a furlong) have been over-empathised as the seven-year-old won over 3m beating Dolphin Square by 14 lengths in February last year.
Nick Williams was successful with Coo Star Sivola in 2018 was off 10-10 (142) and English trained horses being successful in the previous six renewals of the race. One For The Team fits a similar profile to The Conditional, who liked to race mid-field and then take advantage of tiring horses towards the end of a race.
The previous 12 winners of the race had run at least five times over hurdles and won at once. One For The Team has raced seven times over hurdles and been successful once.
Black Tears – Mares Hurdle (each-way)
With Benie Des Dieux ruled-out of the Cheltenham Festival and a number of the leading market principles prospectively redirected to other races (Honeysuckle – Champion Hurdle, Roksana – Stayers Hurdle, Dame De Compagnie and Elimay – Mares Chase and Verdana Blue and Great White Shark respective handicaps at the festival) the race-day card could have already formed.
Black Tears will take the route out of handicap company and take her place in the Mares Hurdle. Second in the Coral Cup, off a mark of 144, at last year's festival behind Dame De Compagnie (one of the biggest plot-jobs of the festival), she looked like she had every chance of winning the race before Barry Geraghty pulled further clear to win. The seven-year-old mare of Our Girl Salley took the same preparation, as last year, with victory in the rearranged Quevega Hurdle at Punchestown (beating The Getaway Star by five lengths) on 1st March.
Concertista has to be considered one of the NAPs of the festival after she won the Mares' Novices' Hurdle by 12 lengths at last year's festival and twice previously has the beating of Black Tears in December at Leopardstown and in the 2019 Mares' Novices' Hurdle when Black Tears finished fourth. Black Tears looks to be one of the each-way players in the race that looks likely on race day to have been decimated compared to the current entries and holds a quintessential factor, previous course and distance form.
Raynas World – Mares Hurdle (each-way)
One horse that has gone under the radar is Raynas World. Philip Kirby's six-year-old mare finished third behind Concertista in the Mares' Novices' Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival last year at 100/1 in a race where she never looked to be posing a serious challenge until the final stages of the race where she finished like a rocket. I would certainly recommend having a watch back of the race if you haven't already done so.
After a 219-days break, Raynas World reappeared at Catterick, where she was three and three-quarter lengths behind Bollin Neil at Catterick by three and three-quarter lengths. Regular rider Thomas Dowson was back on board when she returned to the Winners Enclosure at Hexham in October. Since that victory, she hasn't returned to the Winners Enclosure but produced two creditable efforts behind Stainsby Girl and Nada To Prada respectively in smaller fields, which isn't her forte.
All of her wins have come on either soft or heavy ground. The prognostication, on the opening day of the festival, is due to be soft ground. It could well be worth considering Raynas World as an each-way alternative to the short-priced Concertista, who is looking even more likely to go off as odds-on favourite on the day.
Put The Kettle On – Champion Chase (each-way)
Course and distance form at the Cheltenham Festival is quintessential. Put The Kettle On won the Arkle Chase at last year's festival with remarkable conviction with a one and a quarter victory over the well-fancied Fakir D'oudairies.
There had been inklings that trainer Henry De Bromhead's mare would bypass the Champion Chase and line-up in the newest race to grace the Cheltenham Festival, Mares Novices Chase, but now seems to be going down the Champion Chase route, although nothing has been confirmed. After a 250 days break, Put The Kettle On was victorious by one and a quarter lengths over 2019 Arkle winner Duc Des Genievres at the Cheltenham November meeting.
Six-year-olds don't have the best record in the race, not winning since 2009 (Master Minded), but two key trends are in Put The Kettle The On's favour. 16 of the last 18 winners of the Arkle Chase have gone to place in the Champion Chase the following season and the last 12 winners have raced in at least seven chase runs and won five times. Put The Kettle On has eight chases under her saddle winning six of them, with an impressive 75% strike rate.
The daughter of Name For Fame record at Cheltenham is yet to be blemished in three races, including in the Arkle Chase at last year's festival and will receive the 7lbs Mares Allowance unlike many others in the race.
Without Chancun Pour Soi (astounding Willie Mullins has never won the Champion Chase), Put The Kettle On could easily outrun her current double-figure odds.
Melon – (Ryanair)
Is Melon one of the unluckiest horses to ever run at the Cheltenham Festival or a case of him not wanting to get his head in front at Cheltenham? Melon has finished second at the last four festivals to firstly the late Labaik in the 2017 Supreme Novices' Hurdle, dual Champion Hurdle heroine Buveur D'Air in 2018 and the late Espoir D'Allen in the running of the 2019 Champion Hurdle.
In last year's Marsh Novices' Chase, Melon looked to have won the race when he and Samcro hit the line together but was officially declared to have lost the race by a nose. If you were to watch back the respective races, Melon has been one of the most luckless horses to ever taken apart at the festival but still is one of the most dependable each-way bets of this year's meeting.
Melon was third behind Kemboy and the third favourite for the Gold Cup, A Plus Tard, in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown in December in another race where it looked Melon would be in Winners Enclosure before failing to see out the final furlong. On his latest run, the nine-year-old finished last of five behind Kemboy in the Irish Gold Cup in a disappointing performance, but the ground could have played a factor. Three key trends favour Melon in the race, eleven of the previous twelve winners of the Ryanair Chase have had two runs at Cheltenham, with all of the twelve winners with at least four runs over hurdles and Willie Mullins trained last year's winner. Melon has raced at Cheltenham four times and has had 14 runs over hurdles.
Captain Guinness – Arkle Chase (each-way)
Henry De Bromhead's six-year-old has ensured a burdensome campaign after being diagnosed with a heart problem after being pulled-up half-way through his seasonal reappearance at Tipperary.
After a 52 days break, the mare of Presenting D'Azy, won a 17 runner Beginners Chase at Punchestown at the end of December, beating Midnight Run and Alfa Mix, with no adverse effects of the race at Tipperary. Brought-down two out by Elixir D'Ainay or Asterion Forlonge (who jumped aggressively to his right throughout his race), depending on how you analysed the race, Captain Guinness looked to be contention approaching the Cheltenham Hill. It wouldn't have come as a surprise if he had placed behind Shiskin and Abacadabras in last year's Supreme Novices' Hurdle.
Captain Guinness will attempt to reverse form with Shiskin and the front-running enigma Energumeme next month. He finished second to Energumeme at Naas in a four-runner race in January before falling, reengaging in the Grade 1 Irish Arkle Novice Chase, where he jumped too keenly throughout the race to never cause any problems for his rivals.
With Shiskin and Energumeme the main protagonists in the race, Captain Guinness has been overlooked unfairly in the market and has a compelling profile to finish in the places under the ever-so reliable Rachel Blackmore at a double-figure price, after being so unlucky, an understatement to say the least, at last year's festival. Put The Kettle On won the race last year for Henry De Bromhead with six-year-olds successful in the previous three renewals boosting Captain Guinness's credentials.
Minella Indo – Gold Cup (each-way)
In the most prestigious race at the Cheltenham Festival, Al Boum Photo will aim to become the fifth horse, after Best Mate, Golden Miller, Cottage Rake and Arkle, to win three Cheltenham Gold Cups. He looks the most likely winner on paper, but the forgotten horse has to be 2020 RSA Insurance Novices' Chase runner-up Minella Indo.
Minella Indo finished second behind fellow Gold Cup challenger Champ in one of the most exhilarating RSA Chases in recent years, at last year's festival, in one of the most dramatic finishes you are ever going to see up the Cheltenham Hill. If you haven't already seen the race, firstly, why haven't you seen it and secondly, I recommend having a watch back and try and come to a viable conclusion on how Champ was able to win the race. Plaudits to Barry Geraghty, maybe.
On his seasonal reappearance, Henry De Bromhead's 2019 Albert Bartlett winner won comfortably at Wexford in October with a 25 length victory over 2020 Kim Muir winner Milan Native by 25 lengths. Minella Indo fell in the Savills Chase won by another horse he will repose in the Gold Cup next month, A Plus Tard. On first observations, Minella Indo had never fallen in his career, so I've dismissed that as an abnormality. In the Grade 1 Irish Gold Cup at the Dublin Racing Festival, the son of Beat Hallo finished fourth of five runners, six and three-quarter lengths behind the winner Kemboy.
Minella Indo had excuses for those two runs due to ground dependency and not being ridden predominately enough, but cannot afford another poor run. Third-time lucky?
One For The Team - (Ultima Steeplechase Handicap)
When the handicap weights were declared for the 2021 Cheltenham Festival, Nick Williams would have grinned like a Cheshire cat. Surprisingly, One For The Team's weight was allocated as 10-6 (140), the same weight as last year's winner, the late The Conditional.
The son of Shirocco is still a maiden from five attempts this campaign, after a 244 days break, but has finished third being McFabulous, second to G1 winner Next Destination and fifth to progressive novice Shan Blue. Last time out, in the 3m Sky Bet Handicap Chase, in front of the ITV Cameras, One For The Team, travelled well but emptied four-out and wasn't in the picture for the final stages of the race.
There is no guarantee that One For The Team will get into the race, as another 20 horses will need to withdraw, but if he does get into the race, he will more than likely go off bottom-weight, like The Conditional. Concerns over the trip (3m and half a furlong) have been over-empathised as the seven-year-old won over 3m beating Dolphin Square by 14 lengths in February last year.
Nick Williams was successful with Coo Star Sivola in 2018 was off 10-10 (142) and English trained horses being successful in the previous six renewals of the race. One For The Team fits a similar profile to The Conditional, who liked to race mid-field and then take advantage of tiring horses towards the end of a race.
The previous 12 winners of the race had run at least five times over hurdles and won at once. One For The Team has raced seven times over hurdles and been successful once.
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